Plague Let Loose in Russian Siberia?
Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia. Source: The Guardian.
On October 2, Russian officials reported the death of researcher Darya Shipilova in the Irkutsk region of Siberia. Shipilova was employed at the Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia, sparking concern that her death may have resulted from accidental exposure to the pneumonic plague, a pathogen endemic to wild rodent populations across Siberia. In addition to the pneumonic plague, the institute conducts research on a variety of pathogens, including anthrax and cholera. Although the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that Shipilova died after contracting severe pneumonia, the precise cause of death remains unconfirmed.
Attempting to quell public alarm, Irkutsk Regional Governor Igor Kobzev said no accidents had been reported at the research center and maintained that “adequate control measures for working with pathogenic microorganisms” were in place. Russia’s response to the death, however, belied some of the government’s official statements. Despite expressing that the situation posed no threat, Russian authorities quarantined over 200 people, as well as the section of the hospital where Shipilova was treated. Furthermore, the head of Rospotrebnadzor, Russia’s governmental agency responsible for managing infectious diseases, traveled to Irkutsk to oversee a meeting of the regional anti-epidemic commission.
WHO officials maintain that the danger to the general public remains low, pointing out that the disease requires close person-to-person contact and carries a brief incubation period that lasts only one to four days, decreasing the time one person could spread it to another. The lack of danger also stems from pneumonic plague treatment advancements. With prompt treatment with antibiotics, the disease can be treated. Dr. Amish Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said, “If this were a fast-spreading cluster, the window in which we’d expect to see it has basically passed.” Nevertheless, questions by WHO officials about lab tests on the victim, the health status of the 200 quarantined citizens, and other health measures have not yet garnered a response from their Russian counterparts. As a result, WHO Director-General Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “We don’t yet have the full picture of this event, and we are not able to conduct a full risk assessment.”
Neighboring governments are also keeping a close eye on developments. The Kazakh Ministry of Health said, “Sanitary and quarantine measures were implemented at state border crossing points.” U.S. officials are also aware of the situation, offering conditional technical assistance if needed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “We’re watching it [the situation in Irkutsk] very closely, hour by hour.” Health officials have also informed President Trump of the situation. When asked about a possible U.S. response, he said, “Anybody that has that kind of a problem, we’re always willing to help.” However, no such request has been made, and due to ongoing tensions between Russia and the U.S., it is highly unlikely Russia would reach out for support. Not only does the situation appear stable and therefore not require outside support, but requesting aid from Washington, as Russia suffers from U.S. sanctions due to its war in Ukraine, would be a humiliating geopolitical concession for the Kremlin.
The lack of information from Moscow has produced comparisons to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, when Chinese officials failed to provide full information about the origin and risks of the disease. In both cases, autocratic regimes prioritized compartmentalization and public relations over timely information to global health officials. This priority on reputation and secrecy is not a particularly surprising decision. In non-democratic regimes, secrecy is standard, and the government’s competency is a key source of legitimacy in the absence of free and fair elections. The death of a citizen and risk of an outbreak due to safety failures at a government-run research lab undercuts the Putin administration’s appearance as a responsible, capable authority.
Despite the fear that the term “plague” naturally instills, there is no definite evidence at this time of any public health emergency from the death in Irkutsk. Tests have yet to confirm that Darya Shipilova died from pneumonic plague, or that, if disease was the cause of death, it represents a danger to the general public. Arguably, the greater danger lies in the Russian government’s refusal to provide clear, forthright information to global health officials, thereby allowing rumor to take root across Siberia and Russia’s immediate neighbors. Whether or not the plague is found to have contributed to the woman’s death, the nature of the disease and precautions reduce the risk of the event devolving into another COVID-19-style pandemic as highly improbable.